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|Origin:||Proceedings of 43 IAF Congress, IAA-92-0155.|
The paper discusses the long-range perspectives of commercial passenger transportation into Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Based on a market model for the timespan from 2001 to 2050, different market growth scenarios are developed. These introduce five different launcher concepts which represent future trends in space technology and promise a significant reduction in recurring costs. Technological variables of the different transportation systems and transportation demand trends had been used as input for an integrated operations and cost model. Computer simulation of passenger transport within the given timespan produced cost trends which are significantly different from those of earlier studies. Finally, suggestions for financing and organizing a commercial passenger transportation service to LEO are made.
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